Dutton’s Political Strategy

Federal Election 2025 is just around the corner and for those not in a swing seat with every square metre filled with corflutes and some volunteer accused of campaign malpractice or being a Chinese spy, it’s been a pretty tame affair. It seems that four leader debates and a month of 90-minutes Insiders episodes on the ABC aren’t enough to engage those in between holidays and more interested/shocked by the theatre of Trump.

Most polling/analysis/opinion/betting markets expect a return to Labor in either a minority or majority form. I have no reason to stray from this view: given historical and current trends it’s unlikely Dutton will win, even with the thin margins at play. Most traditional news media commentators and mastheads have ruled him out.

What I’ve been more interested in is Dutton’s political strategy and how it’s developed throughout this term and campaign. With some bold maneuvering prior to the election Dutton has been able to control a lot of the debate from opposition, to the point that nuclear energy is now an actual debating point and the Voice is currently buried (but not dead). A part of me wanted to see what Dutton would do in this campaign to win and overcome the structural weaknesses within his party, something that hadn’t been stress-tested until now. It appears that he hasn’t been able to defeat these challenges, as we see from the party wide gaps in policy detail, rhetorical inconsistencies, and general underperformance.

Some may point to the typical differences in politics, bias, interpretation, etc. This ignores that political strategies, campaigns, and the media it interacts with operate to a certain standard. My view is that the media generally have been focused on the opposition’s weaknesses because it’s simply more interesting to report on and talk about than the campaign agenda itself (and media lives on clicks for advertising and/or a subscriber base). Tactically I think Dutton has been attempting to divert attention from his campaign platform, particularly in the last few days by throwing dead cats, calling the ABC and Guardian “hate media”, describing Labor’s changes to superannuation retirement funds as an “inheritance tax”, and cancelling Welcome to Country ceremonies.

But tactics can only take the cards you’re dealt with so far, and at the end of the day they don’t stack up well: with a party base overly reliant on its dogma of smaller government and less taxes and a weak candidature, it’s not surprising that policy details have been thin, particularly on nuclear and its economic policy (which in reality is not smaller government and not lower taxing), and gaffs and comments from aspiring politicians not yet match-fit for governing - if at all if they continue to pursue niche ideas in a electoral system that favours popular ideas.

If only had Dutton played the Trump Card, the media sensation it would generate could’ve swept these problems away. Consider this alternate campaign playbook: Dutton gets on the phone with Trump, who tweets or says on camera it would be easier to work with him and that tariffs would be lower if Dutton wins. Add to this a more aggressive footing on nuclear, with Dutton visiting coal sites earmarked for nuclear energy, welcomed by young Australians, or dare I say it pockets of Indigenous communities interested in the job security and investment nuclear would provide, side-by-side with business leaders in the energy sector keen on the technology, if only legislation permitted them to do so of course.

Crazy brave? Sure. But this is the extension of things Dutton has said - that they would work with the US, and of course, go nuclear. It would’ve provided the lightning-in-a-bottle material to go viral like the No campaign to the Voice did.

Which leads me to another point: if you’re not viral you’re getting lost in social media, and in this situation that favours the incumbent Albanese government. I’m sure Dutton and his team were aware of the kind of campaign required to go viral and how important it would be. Instead they spent a significant time focused on not just suburban seats but multicultural communities, presumably to heal the damage of the over-the-top anti-China rhetoric during the Morrison years that would’ve scarred the Liberal brand and reverberated across Chinese-language messaging app communities and channels. Complementing this was his peculiarly open press conferences and mostly constructive engagement with traditional news media.

So what does this actually say about Dutton’s political strategy? Substance over style, perhaps? I think Dutton’s hedged his bets this campaign by treating it more like the first or second stage of a triathlon: not a whatever-it-takes sprint to win government, nor a slow slumbering marathon to guarantee a certain number of seats, but a concerted effort that can be leveraged in victory or a loss, keeping the powder dry come 2028.

This would explain many of the campaign anomalies coming from Dutton. The flexibility to switch from good to bad cop with traditional news media, keeping them on-side while throwing bones to the right who believe they’re captured by the wokey left. To soften his image to “middle” Australia (whatever that means), and to let the Teals/Independents naturally return to the Liberals through attrition. A focus on values and benefits of Coalition policy without being pinned down in discussion of monetary details.

Who knows, maybe Dutton will actually win. Or resign. But I think if things stay at their current trajectory: unrelenting global turmoil, inflation, escalating house prices… the future sociopolitical environment may better suit a sharpened-up Dutton and Coalition on a platform that’s been laid out this election in preparation for the next.